According to a French study…Nearly 5,000 deaths can be avoided by active mobility

A French study has assessed the impact of a low-carbon scenario, which foresees a large place for active mobility. The researchers showed a significant benefit on mortality, as well as economic benefits related to life years gained.

Today, active transport – walking and cycling – is promoted for its environmental and climatic
benefits. A French study published in the « International Journal of Public Health » shows that active mobility also has significant
health benefits. During a webinar, the researchers reminded
us of the burden of physical
inactivity, which is involved in many chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, dementia and depression.
And in France, 95% of the adult population is exposed to a health risk due to a lack of physical
activity or too much time spent sitting down, according to a recent report by the French National
Agency for Food, Environmental
and Occupational Health Safety (Anses). Meta-analyses of epidemiological studies have already shown that walking and cycling reduce the risk of various diseases as well as the risk of all-cause mortality. Here, the researchers
wanted to document these health benefits in the context of a low-carbon transition scenario, in order to “further encourage public support and the commitment
of decision-makers”, emphasised
Kévin Jean (Institut Pasteur/
Conservatoire national des arts et métiers, co-author. With his team, they based themselves on the scenario described by the negaWatt association, which is based on energy sobriety, energy efficiency and renewable energy.
This scenario, which runs until 2050, aims to reduce primary energy needs by 64% and to be carbon neutral by 2047. It foresees
an increase in the use of active
transport. In particular, electrically
assisted bicycles (EABs) are expected to become the majority
mode of transport by 2035. “We consider that the effort made with an EAB represents 75 to 90% of the effort made with an unassisted bicycle,” explains Kévin Jean. If we take into account
the duration of journeys, walking will remain dominant until 2050. The researchers used the Quantitative Health Impact Assessment (QHIA) methodology and started from the dose-response
relationships defined by a 2014 meta-analysis: 100 minutes of cycling per week reduces the risk of all-cause mortality by 10% and 168 minutes of walking reduces this risk by 11%. These relationships were applied to the negaWatt scenario to quantify its impact on health. Data on the distribution of walking and cycling
by age were also taken into account, based on the model from Denmark, a country with a strong cycling culture due to its public policies.
Urban environments
The researchers showed that the increase in the use of active transport predicted by this scenario
would make it possible to avoid 5 000 deaths per year by 2030 and 10 000 by 2045, with a gain of three months in life expectancy
in that year. In economic
terms, these life years gained will translate into 35 billion euros of benefits per year from 2040 onwards. These health benefits are not yet widely perceived, but they reinforce the relevance of promoting active mobility, according to the authors. The authors regret that investment by the public authorities is still too marginal: while the 2023 Bicycle Plan has a budget of €250 million for the year, the pump assistance scheme received €2 billion between April and August 2022. “Policy decisions are often made in silos, very separately. But by focusing on a single sector,
we sometimes forget the context, which can lead to counterbalances
or, on the contrary, unexpected benefits”, notes Audrey de Nazelle, co-author, who defends a more holistic vision
of measures around climate change. She also calls for greater consideration to be given to the well-being of the population, which includes making our urban environments more desirable.